The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) today released Vehicle Retail Data for November'24.
November’24 Retails
FADA President, Mr. C S Vigneshwar, shared his perspective on the auto retail performance for November 2024: “While November was initially expected to build on its prior momentum, particularly due to the marriage season, dealer feedback suggests that this segment underperformed overall expectations. Although rural markets offered some support, primarily in the two-wheeler category, marriage-related sales remained subdued. The late occurrence of Deepawali at the end of October also caused a spill over of festive registrations into November, affecting the month’s sales trajectory.
On a year-over-year basis, 2W, 3W and Trac recorded growth of 15.8%, 4.23%, and 29.88% respectively. In contrast, PV and CV declined by 13.72% and 6.08%. Two-wheelers, buoyed by the festive spill over, grew by 26.67% MoM and 15.8% YoY, achieving record-high November registrations that even surpassed November’23 levels. Still, the marriage season’s contribution fell short of expectations, offering only limited relief from rural India. The PV segment faced notable headwinds, with sales declining 33.37% MoM and 13.72% YoY.
Dealers cited weak market sentiment, limited product variety and insufficient new launches, compounded by the shift of festive demand into October. Although rural interest was present, it failed to significantly improve sentiment. Inventory levels have reduced by about 10 days, but to remain high at around 65-68 days. FADA continues to urge OEMs to further rationalize inventory so that the industry can enter the new year on a healthier footing, reducing the need for additional discounts.
The CV segment also struggled, with sales down 15.85% MoM and 6.08% YoY. Contributing factors included restricted product choices, older model issues, limited financier support, and the absence of major festivals in November following a strong October. External elements such as elections, a slowdown in coal and cement industries, and weak market sentiment also weighed heavily on this category.”
Near-Term Outlook
With prospects of a bumper Kharif harvest likely to temper food inflation, the broader macroeconomic environment appears set to improve, potentially aiding consumer sentiment in the months ahead. However, the immediate December outlook derived from dealer feedback is mixed.
Category-wise Expectations:
• 2W: Dealers suggest that while some buyers remain hesitant—either awaiting new-year models or influenced by subdued post-festive sentiment—others could be drawn by potential year-end discounts and stable rural demand. Although momentum may not be robust, incremental schemes and easing inflation could lend mild support, placing 2W on a cautiously positive footing.
• PV: In the PV segment, heavy discounting and improved product availability are expected to help offset weak consumer sentiment and a general year-end lull. While some customers are deferring purchases for new-year models, overall interest could pick up due to aggressive offers and end-of- year promotions. This sets a tone of cautious optimism, with a moderate chance of improved sales compared to November.
• CV: The CV category faces a more challenging environment. Factors such as subdued infrastructure activity and customers holding back for newer model-year vehicles continue to dampen demand. Nonetheless, selective OEM schemes and year-end offers may provide a limited lift. On balance, while the CV segment’s expectations are not uniformly positive, there is some hope that targeted incentives and stable financing conditions could prevent a sharper decline.
In sum, while the near-term outlook for December is not overwhelmingly strong across segments, it leans towards stability with pockets of potential growth, underlining a sentiment that remains overall remains cautiously optimistic.
Key Findings from our Online Members Survey
§ Liquidity
o Neutral 53.72%
o Bad 31.08%
o Good 15.20%
§ Sentiment
o Neutral 49.66%
o Bad 33.11%
o Good 17.23%
§ Mega Marriage Season in November’24
o Flat 66.89%
o De-Growth 23.99%
o Growth 09.12%
§ Whether booking pipeline for Dec’24 was getting traction?
o No 69.00%
o Yes 31.00%
§ Expectation from December’24
o Flat 40.54%
o Growth 39.19%
o De-growth 20.27%
